The US Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization marks the most significant shift in the country’s abortion landscape since the 1970s. Following this ruling, several states have enacted bans on abortion, while others have introduced policies that either further restrict or safeguard access to the procedure. Evidence from the pre-Dobbs era indicates that access to abortion can change people’s ability to interrupt an unintended pregnancy, leading to downstream impacts on future economic well-being. However, the abortion landscape since Dobbs has changed and continues evolving rapidly. Therefore, it remains an open question whether and to what extent post-Dobbs abortion access will affect people’s future economic well-being.

We propose two analyses that together will provide a solid foundation for high-quality research on the economic impacts of Dobbs. First, we will use novel data analysis on abortion counts, along with existing evidence on immediate post-Dobbs changes in births, to predict medium-term changes in birth rates. Second, we will conduct a power analysis to determine the magnitude of birth increases needed to observe impacts on downstream economic outcomes. We will integrate these analyses by assessing whether our predictions of medium-term changes in births will feasibly generate subsequent downstream economic effects. Our findings will provide insights to us, the research community, policymakers, institutions, and those committed to improving abortion seeker’s well-being on the potential of estimating significant economic impacts in the medium term so that researchers are prepared to conduct such analyses when the data become available.