In the leadup and wake of the Dobbs decision, both business leaders and policymakers have contended that abortion restrictions hinder worker recruitment and retention. Economic arguments of this nature have been used to oppose abortion restrictions and to advocate for protective measures.

In this study, we aim to quantify these economic effects that business leaders and policymakers raised concerns about. We will do so using a synthetic difference-in-differences research design that allows for a causal interpretation of estimated effects. In particular, we will analyze population flows and business relocation using change-of-address data from the United States Postal Service. We will also analyze business activity—including openings and closings, employment, and payrolls—using the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Furthermore, we will analyze census records to consider how the flow of people and businesses is affecting the composition of communities, with particular attention to individuals who may be unable to relocate due to economic, familial, or other constraints.

Our findings will shed light on the broad-based economic implications for people, businesses, and communities. As such, our findings will underscore the significance of abortion policy beyond its direct impact, offering insights for policymakers and stakeholders involved in shaping abortion access and/or helping to ameliorate the effects of existing barriers to access.